Financial Analysis x402 offerings

Chicago Fed composite index of 105 financial indicators covering money markets, debt, equity, and banking. Positive = tighter than average conditions, negative = looser. Weekly frequency, provides a single number summarizing broad financial conditions. Use for macro regime assessment and risk model inputs.

Lower bound of the FOMC's target range for the federal funds rate. Changes only at scheduled FOMC meetings (or emergency actions). Use to track the official policy rate stance and identify rate hike/cut cycles. Daily frequency.

Weekly count of new unemployment insurance claims — the most timely labor market indicator available. Released every Thursday, one week lag. First sign of labor market deterioration. Use for real-time recession monitoring and NFP forecasting. Weekly frequency with full derived metrics.

St. Louis Fed composite stress index measuring strain in U.S. financial markets. Constructed from 18 weekly data series including rates, spreads, and equity measures. Zero = normal conditions, positive = above-average stress. Weekly frequency, useful for crisis detection and risk-off signals.

Total value of goods and services produced in the U.S., nominal (current dollar) terms. Quarterly BEA estimate. Use for economic size comparisons, debt-to-GDP calculations, and long-run growth trend analysis. Quarterly frequency with full history back to 1947.

Short-end U.S. Treasury yield most sensitive to Fed policy expectations. Moves closely with fed funds rate expectations. Primary input for yield curve spread calculations and rate cycle timing. Daily frequency with full derived metrics.

GDP divided by M2 money supply — measures how efficiently money circulates in the economy. Declining velocity means more money is needed to generate the same output, a deflationary signal. Rising velocity can amplify inflation. Quarterly frequency, critical context for M2 growth interpretation.

CBOE measure of expected 30-day volatility in the S&P 500, derived from options prices. The market's fear gauge. Spikes during crises and risk-off events. Use for risk sentiment analysis, hedging signal generation, and regime detection. Daily frequency with full history.

Benchmark long-term U.S. government borrowing rate. Anchors mortgage rates, corporate bond yields, and equity discount rates. Widely used as the risk-free rate in financial models. Critical for duration risk, equity valuation, and global capital flow analysis. Daily frequency, 60+ year history.

Market-implied inflation expectation over the next 10 years, derived from the spread between nominal Treasury and TIPS yields. Primary input for real rate calculations, inflation regime detection, and Fed policy models. Rises when markets expect higher future inflation. Daily frequency, 20+ year history with full derived metrics.

10-year Treasury yield minus 10-year breakeven inflation rate. Represents the real return demanded for long-dated government bonds. Negative real yields historically correlate with risk-asset outperformance. Critical input for equity valuation models and cross-asset allocation. Pre-computed daily.

Atlanta Fed real-time GDP growth estimate updated continuously with incoming data releases. Provides the most current read on current-quarter GDP before the official BEA estimate. Useful for nowcasting, growth surprise detection, and positioning ahead of GDP releases. Irregular frequency, updated on data release days.

Yield spread between high-yield (junk) bonds and equivalent Treasuries. The premier measure of credit stress and risk appetite in lower-quality debt. Spikes sharply in recessions and crises. Use for risk-off detection, credit cycle timing, and recession probability models. Daily frequency.

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, measuring price changes in personal consumption. Broader than CPI, covers more goods and services. Used directly by the FOMC in setting policy targets. Monthly frequency, includes MoM, YoY, rolling averages, and trend direction.

New orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods — items lasting 3+ years. Leading indicator of business investment and industrial activity. Volatile month-to-month due to aircraft orders; ex-transportation version smoother. Monthly frequency with full derived metrics.

CPI excluding food and energy — the Fed's preferred measure of underlying inflation trend. Strips out volatile components to reveal persistent price pressure. Critical input for Fed policy models and inflation persistence analysis. Monthly frequency with full derived metrics including z-score and percentile rank.

High-yield OAS minus investment-grade OAS — isolates the incremental risk premium for lower-quality credit. Widens when credit stress is concentrated in weaker issuers. Use for credit differentiation analysis and stress regime detection. Pre-computed daily from BofA index data.

The actual overnight rate at which banks lend reserves to each other, set by Fed open market operations. The primary instrument of U.S. monetary policy. Use for rate cycle identification, policy stance analysis, and macro regime detection. Daily frequency with full history back to 1954.

30-year fixed mortgage rate — the rate most U.S. homebuyers pay. Directly tied to 10-year Treasury yields plus a spread. Use for housing affordability analysis, refinancing wave detection, and consumer balance sheet modeling. Weekly frequency.

GDP adjusted for inflation — the true measure of economic growth. Quarterly BEA advance, second, and third estimates. Two consecutive negative quarters = technical recession. Use for growth regime identification, cycle dating, and productivity analysis. Quarterly frequency.

Upper bound of the FOMC's target range for the federal funds rate. The ceiling of the Fed's policy corridor. Pair with the lower limit to determine the full target range width. Daily frequency, essential for any Fed policy model.

Core PCE excluding food and energy — the single most important inflation series for Fed policy decisions. The FOMC explicitly targets this at 2%. Persistent deviations drive rate decisions. Monthly frequency with full derived metrics and 30+ year history.

30-year fixed mortgage rate minus 10-year Treasury yield. Measures the premium mortgage lenders charge above the risk-free benchmark. Normal range 150-200bps; elevated spread signals lender risk aversion or MBS prepayment concerns. Pre-computed weekly from MORTGAGE30US and DGS10.

Number of new residential building permits issued — a leading indicator of future housing construction activity. Leads housing starts by 1-3 months. Use for housing cycle analysis and construction sector modeling. Monthly frequency.